How pilots detect hazards and risks aptly due to special training and how they assess and manage them, you can read here:
1. An Overview of Decision-Making in Aviation, ADM
The overall concept is called aeronautical decision-making, abbreviated ADM. Pilots are especially trained to use this particular type of decision-making. There, the focus is on the detection and the assessment of hazards and risks, as well as their successful handling through adequate decisions.
In addition, the awareness of the human factors, and how to deal with them, coping with stress, as well as handling the increasing automation successfully, play a decisive role in ADM.
In ADM, crew resource management is seen as one component which helps to employ ADM as a whole advantageously. The use of all available resources and the consideration of all information facilitates decision-making.
The aim of ADM is to make those decisions, which optimise the success and the safety of a flight, whilst considering all of the aforementioned aspects. Below, we will take a closer look at how to deal with hazards and risks in ADM.
2. What Are Hazards and Risks?
In many cases, the two terms are not separated from each other precisely. Often, one talks about a risk even though it is primarily about a hazard which leads to a particular risk. First, we will look at the terms "hazard" and "risk" separately, before we elucidate how pilots handle these two.
2.1. Hazard
A hazard is any real or perceived threatening element, which a crew encounters. The examples of these are numerous and comprise technical malfunctions, weather phenomena, or in-flight incidents. The pilots must detect the hazards quickly and confidently in the first place.
Partly, the hazards are known, whereas others occur all of a sudden. Today, the weather can be predicted quite reliably. Some of the technical limitations are known to the pilots, others can develop out of the blue in any phase of the flight.
2.2. Risk
On the one hand, the risk results from the hazard directly. If one can recognise the hazard easily, whilst it would have minor consequences, the related risk is small. A huge risk is already caused by the hazard itsself if the consequences are potentially fatal. This is the case when a technical outage renders the airliner almost unflyable.
Furthermore, the risk is correlated with the handling of the hazard, i. e. how the pilots will react to the hazard. They can avoid it completely, take measures in order to reduce the risk, or decide that they don´t have to do anything.
2.3. Adequate Assessment of Hazard and Risk
As soon as the pilots notice a hazard, they have to decide how they are going to counteract it. The evaluation of the risk, which is associated with the hazard, depends on experience, amongst others. Experienced pilots have already dealt with many a hazard and, thus, know better what reaction is most suitable.
In addition, they have more options to respond to a hazard due to their higher skill level. As in any profession, experienced specialists need to be aware of not to lose their diligence when assessing the facts. In that case, many a novice could outperform them applying this very diligence.
A personal inclination towards risk behaviour may also influence the evaluation of a hazard and the associated risk. As we have already unveiled in the previous blog article , five hazardous attitudes, which lead to risky behaviour, have been defined in aviation.
2.4. Decision-Making for Optimal Safety
After the pilots have assessed the hazard and the risks, they have to decide on how to proceed. When using ADM, pilots should make their decisions deliberately and according to their current level of knowledge and skills.
Even though safety, of course, has the highest priority, pilots should consider the situation as a whole when making decisions. Is a deviation to another airport really necessary? What consequences would it have for the passengers, but also from an economic point of view?
In the following, we will examine how the three checklists with the acronyms PAVE, CARE, and TEAM are used in the entire process.
3. Pilots Apply Sophisticated Checklists for Safety
As we have already said in the previous article, ADM is used for all factors, which could influence the safety of a flight. Commercial pilots, as well as private pilots, use the checklist with the acronym PAVE to identify real or perceived hazards already during the planning of their flight.
They use the second checklist with the acronym CARE in order to evaluate if and, if necessary, to what degree they have to deal with the hazards which they have identified during the first step: "Why must I CARE about these circumstances?"
The third checklist with the acronym TEAM helps the pilots to manage the hazards and the associated risks safely.
3.1. The Checklist "PAVE"
Here, we will quickly repeat its content one more time. Pilots use it in order to evaluate everything in a systematical fashion, which could influence their flight:
- P for "Pilot", here, the pilot-in-command (PIC): knowledge and skills, but also the current physical and emotional state
- A for "Aircraft": Is the aeroplane suitable for this flight and technically in a sufficient state?
- V for "enVironment": this includes the weather, the time of day, and the terrain which the pilots will cross
- E for "External Pressures": for example, what others expect from the pilots
Here, we will use the fatigue of a pilot-in-command on a scheduled flight, which has been identified under "P", as an example.
The airliner is technically in a superb condition and suitable for the intended flight.
It is late in the afternoon, and the weather is perfect for flying.
Concerning external pressures, the pilot wants to reach her base airport on the same day, because she has an important training course on the next day. Furthermore, her employer´s expectations play an important role.
3.2. The Checklist "CARE"
Using the checklist "CARE", pilots assess the potential consequences of the identified hazards and the associated risks. We will set in the hazard "fatigue", which was detected under "P":
- C for "Consequences": What are the possible consequences if the flight will be carried out under these circumstances?
- A for "Alternatives": What are the alternatives?
- R für "Reality": the real probability of an undesired outcome of the flight under the given circumstances
- E for "External Factors": To what degree does a certain external factor influence not only the concentration and the abilities of the pilots, but their decision in particular?
Concerning "consequences", we need to mention the following with respect to the pilot´s fatigue: enhanced risk of potentially severe mistakes, diminished situational awareness, and compromised decision-making, for instance.
As a commercial pilot, she has got fewer alternatives than a manager who holds a private pilot´s license. She is not only driven by her own schedule and appointment calendar, but by the airline in the first place, which has to carry out the flights as scheduled under economic pressure. Presumably, she will only resign from the flight if her fatigue is severe.
In reality, the likelihood of a momentous error, and, due to that, of an incident or air accident, is enhanced. The pilot must be able to assess her condition, but also the circumstances, the length of the flight, and her familiarity with the route, as well as her experience, confidently in order to determine this likelihood.
The external factor in our example is the pressure due to the training course on the next day, which the pilot would absolutely love to attend. Her wish could push her decision towards flying despite of the fatigue.
3.3. The checklist "TEAM"
Employing the checklist "TEAM", the crew in the cockpit will now handle the risk:
- T for "Transfer": Can the decision be transferred to someone else?
- E for "Elimination": Can the hazard be elimited completely?
- A for "Accept": Can one accept the identified risk?
- M for "Mitigation": What can a team do in oder to minimise the risk?
If she decides to leave the decision to someone else, the pilot could talk to her supervisor.
She could eliminate the hazard entirely by resigning from the flight.
As soon as the pilot has assessed all the factors on the lists, including the likelihood of an undesired outcome, she can decide to accept the risk. Depending on the degree of her fatigue, her experience, and her endurance, this is the most probable solution. The pressure to fulfill the task adds to the aforementioned criteria.
In order ot reduce the risk, a cup of coffee and a glass of energy drink would lend themselves to the "treatment" of the fatigue. All jokes aside. Even if this is common, for example, with employees in the emergency medical service, it must be clear to us that coating the symptoms does not solve our problem. In our example, the pilot-in-command could transfer the take-off and landing to her copilot, whilst she herself would handle radio conversation and other tasks during these phases of the flight.
4. ADM in All Phases of a Flight
4.1. The Phases of a Flight
After their last preparations and the pushback of the aircraft, the pilots taxi out to the runway. This might sound unspectacular, but already now they have to make sure that they do not touch anything with their wingtips. In addition, they have to cross active runways carefully.
There are dedicated checklists for take-off, as there is much to consider there. Then, there are the climb, the cruise, the decend, and the landing. The decend and landing are again phases of the flight with a high workload. After the landing, the aeroplane has to be steered safely towards the final parking position. During that, the same caution as with the initial taxiing is necessary.
Most of the accidents happen during take-off and landing (23,4 and 24,1%, respectively).
4.2. Examples of Hazards and Risks During the Entire Flight
Below, we will take a look at taxiing towards the runway, the cruise, and the decend as examples.
Technical problems en Route to the Runway
On the way to the runway it might happen that the pilots notice a technical failure. Now, they have to assess the hazard and the risk swiftly and act accordingly. Can they fly despite of it, because the malfunction won´t have a major impact on their flight? Or do they need to have the failure checked? In this case, it will be decided during the check if it can be repaired immediately or if another airliner has to be used.
En Route Through the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone
If the equator is crossed during a flight, a zone in which severe thunderstorms can occur, is crossed at the same time. When the pilots have such thunderstorms ahead of them on their route, they have to determine, what hazard is associated with them and how great the risk for their aeroplane and, thus, the safety of their flight is. Then, they decide which thunderstorm cells they are going to fly around.
Shall We Land as Planned?
The weather can deteriorate substantially at the destination airport, whilst the pilots are on their way towards it. What cross winds, rainfalls, and thunderstorms can they accept there? Even in such a situation, they have to assess the hazards and risks. Could the airliner be caught by a gust of wind and, therefore, skid off the runway?
5. In the Next Blog Article, We Will Elaborate Further Aspects of ADM
As we now have unveiled in detail how pilots apply ADM to keep the risk of a flight as minimal as possible, we will address further subtopics of ADM in May. We will occupy ourselves with the management of stress intensively, elucidate the role of the human factors, and take a first look at the increasing automation in aviation.
Author: Eva-Maria Schottdorf
Date: April 25th, 2023
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